Fuel Shock, Tighter Air Capacity, and Strait of Hormuz Disruption Reshape Global Freight Planning
April is shaping up to be a cost-driven freight market, not a broad demand-driven one.
April 1, 2026 – The freight market is increasingly driven by fuel costs, rerouting, and geopolitical disruption rather than a broad demand surge, according to the April 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report from Dimerco Express Group. The report points to continued expansion in global manufacturing, but with softer momentum, higher operating costs, and tighter booking conditions across key air, ocean, and rail lanes.
“April is shaping up to be a cost-driven freight market, not a broad demand-driven one. We are seeing fuel shock and Middle East rerouting tighten air capacity from Taiwan, Korea, and across Southeast Asia, while ocean carriers layer in bunker-related surcharges and rail into Europe moves higher as shippers look for alternatives. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues, shippers should expect elevated freight costs, shorter rate validity, and more route-specific volatility across Asia-Europe and Asia-North America in the weeks ahead,” said Catherine Chien, Chairwoman of Dimerco.
Strait of Hormuz risk is reinforcing cost pressure
Recent developments around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing pressure on global freight planning. Disruption in the waterway has kept pressure on oil, jet fuel, and shipping costs, strengthening Dimerco’s view that fuel-related surcharges and route-by-route volatility will remain central freight drivers in the near term.
For shippers, that means tighter booking windows, more volatile rate validity, and a greater need to secure alternative routings before disruptions cascade across regions.
Air freight is tightening across Asia
Air cargo conditions are becoming more constrained in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia as higher fuel costs, longer routings, and service adjustments reduce effective capacity. In Taiwan, disruptions through Middle East hubs and rising fuel surcharges are pushing air rate increases of roughly 20% to 30%, especially for electronics and urgent cargo.
South Korea is also seeing tighter capacity on U.S. and South Asia lanes, while several Southeast Asian markets are facing backlog conditions, shorter rate validity, and earlier booking requirements.
Ocean and rail markets are firming on disruption, not peak-season demand
Ocean carriers are layering in emergency bunker and fuel-related surcharges as Persian Gulf instability disrupts schedules and raises operating costs. In China, carriers are trying to push rates higher ahead of contract season, while Asia-Europe services continue to feel the impact of longer routings and reduced effective vessel supply. Rail into Europe is also moving up as cargo shifts away from disrupted ocean lanes, with China-Europe rail operators implementing another round of container-rate increases.
Trade enforcement is becoming another freight variable
Beyond transportation conditions, the report highlights a more difficult compliance backdrop. Dimerco points to the temporary 10% U.S. Section 122 import surcharge, new Section 301 investigations tied to overcapacity and forced labor exposure, and tighter import controls in technology categories.
For importers, freight planning and trade compliance are becoming more closely linked, especially where sourcing, tariff exposure, and routing decisions intersect.
Key data points
- Jet fuel rose from about $95 per barrel in late February to $197 per barrel by March 20.
- Taiwan air freight rates increased by roughly 20% to 30% on disrupted lanes.
- North America air freight rates rose 20% to 50% as fuel surcharges and rerouting intensified.
- China-Europe rail hubs imposed $300 to $500 per container increases in March, with broader market increases now moving above $500 per container.
The April 2026 Dimerco Asia-Pacific Freight Report includes lane-specific forecasts, regional market conditions, trade compliance updates, and shipping recommendations for cargo moving across Asia, North America, Mexico, and Europe.