Tariff Ruling, Refund Uncertainty and Border Violence: Mounting Risk for Supply Chains

By Amy Roach | February 24, 2026

A trio of fast-moving developments is reshaping the risk landscape for supply chain and logistics leaders: the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that invalidates key tariffs imposed under emergency powers; mounting legal and political uncertainty over whether importers will receive billions in tariff refunds; and escalating cartel violence in Mexico that is disrupting critical freight corridors into the United States. Together, these events underscore how quickly trade policy, legal rulings, and security conditions can converge to affect landed costs, cross-border flows, and network stability.

Tariff Turbulence Redux

In a landmark 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court last week struck down a broad swath of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), ruling that the president lacked constitutional authority to levy sweeping import duties without explicit congressional approval. The immediate supply chain implication is a reset of U.S. trade policy that was once a cornerstone of broader industrial cost strategies.

The ruling has created more uncertainty for importers and logistics planners. While the policy invalidation relieves pressure on landed costs that have ballooned in recent years, the legal and administrative path forward remains murky — especially around whether companies will ever see refunds for tariffs they already paid.

Major U.S. firms are already moving.

FedEx has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking repayment for duties it paid under the now-nullified tariff regime, with others like Costco, Revlon and EssilorLuxottica understood to be pursuing similar claims.

At the same time, Senate Democrats have introduced legislation aimed at compelling the federal government to refund billions in tariff revenues — potentially more than $175 billion — and prioritizing returns to smaller importers and manufacturers hit hardest by the levies.

But the administrative and political obstacles are significant. The Supreme Court did not dictate how or when refunds must be issued; instead, it largely left the implementation details to lower courts and executive agencies, leaving many businesses uncertain about timing and eligibility.

Economists and trade attorneys caution that refund processing could be lengthy, complex and uneven, particularly for middle-market companies that absorbed tariff costs in supply chain pricing models.

Ripple Effects on Logistics and Cost Forecasts

The ruling alters the legal framework governing the most recent rounds of tariffs that had been in place. However, near-term uncertainty remains. Following the decision, the administration signaled it would pursue revised tariffs under alternate statutory authorities, meaning some duty rates could remain in effect while the policy landscape continues to evolve.

For logistics and freight operators, the impact manifests in several ways:

• Pricing and cost planning: Carriers and brokers are adjusting landed cost models as tariff exposure shifts under new authority.
• Inventory and sourcing: Import-heavy sectors such as electronics and consumer goods are reassessing supplier contracts and freight flows in light of unpredictable duty environments.
• Legal risk and compliance: Supply chain leaders must account for potential refund litigation and new tariff codes affecting customs clearance processes.

Cross-Border Security: Mexico Violence Adds to Supply Chain Risks

While U.S. trade policy remains in flux, security conditions in Mexico are presenting fresh operational hazards for northbound supply chains.

The killing of Nemesio “El Mencho,” a longstanding leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), by Mexican federal forces has sparked waves of retaliatory violence across multiple states. Armed retaliation, road blockades and highway disruptions have significantly impacted freight corridors in western Mexico, particularly routes linking the critical Port of Manzanillo — a gateway for nearly half of Mexico’s container imports — to inland production hubs and U.S. border crossings.

Although primary crossings such as Laredo and El Paso remain open, inland road blockages and narco-blockades have caused delays, tightened trucking capacity and heightened safety liabilities for carriers traversing these corridors.

Logistics planners report that the evolving security situation is forcing carriers to reroute freight, activate contingency protocols and reassess insurance and risk mitigation strategies. Extended disruptions could ripple into just-in-time supply chains for automotive parts, electronics and other essential goods moving across the U.S.–Mexico trade axis.

What Shippers Should Watch

• Tariff legal process: Ongoing litigation and legislation over refunds could shape cost forecasts for quarters to come.
• Customs operations: Changes to tariff codes and duty collection guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection will directly affect entry filings and cash flow planning.
• Mexico corridor security: Fluid violence and blockades could influence routing choices, lead times and freight pricing across border logistics networks.

As these dynamics unfold, supply chain professionals face a complex intersection of policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk — one that underscores the need for adaptive strategies across global trade and logistics operations.