Polish Up That Crystal Ball
Making informed decisions that impact all aspects of the supply chain requires access to quality, actionable information. While it’s not possible to accurately predict the future, BlueGrace Logistics’ Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) examines expected revenue growth for upcoming quarters and how shippers can adjust based on those expectations.
The LCI shipper survey measures expected industry expansion or contraction based on revenue forecasts, inventory levels, and order volumes. Respondents were asked to reply positive, neutral, or negative when asked the following questions: What is your expected revenue growth for the next quarter? Will this growth/shrinkage impact your inventory levels and if so, by how much? How do you anticipate this growth/shrinkage will impact your orders?
Respondents were bearish on revenue growth quarter-over-quarter. Results from Q4 2022 show just 17% expecting negative revenue growth in Q1 2023. Concerns centered on economic tradewinds, however, led nearly 25% of respondents to enter the new year with a neutral outlook.
This also is reflected in the responses concerning inventory levels and order impact, where the majority outlook was neutral for both questions, with negative outlooks losing steam quarter-over-quarter. Shippers seem to be headed into 2023 with cautious optimism.