Growing Pains

It’s good news, bad news time. The good news is that purchasing managers see economic growth for the foreseeable future, according to the Institute of Supply Management, which surveys purchasing managers monthly. These Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys produce a key economic indicator that measures the health of both the manufacturing and service sectors.

The latest PMI index shows economic growth across the board—5% projected GDP growth. Except for the post-pandemic surge, that hasn’t happened since 2014. The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 57 (up from a high of 53.9 in August 2026), and the Services Sector PMI reached 58.7 (up from another high of 56.5 in August), showing robust consumer and corporate spending. An Index reading above 50 indicates economic expansion ahead, while those below 50 indicate economic contraction.

In the face of that welcome news, some will want to focus on the bad, such as high fuel prices. By comparison, under the two previous administrations (308 days Obama, 83 days Biden, 24 days Trump) $100+ a barrel crude was a continuing business (and consumer) impediment created by U.S. energy policy or lack thereof.

The current energy challenge is not enough to produce what the wonks call “negative growth” in consumer spend and manufacturing growth, according to the PMI Index. What gives? Could other government initiatives offset the temporary energy challenge? When you consider the level of investment in manufacturing and the about-face in anti-energy policy, it appears so.

But there must be more bad news, right? I have some:

• Supplier delivery delays reached their highest levels, finds the purchasing managers report. Some cite operating capacity bottlenecks as they struggle to keep up with a surge in orders and existing plant capacity limits.
• Labor availability and LTL and TL tone.
• Price increases. As operating capacity tightens and fuel costs rise, carriers and 3PLs gain pricing power, reversing previous downward freight rate trends.
• Five-year business growth highs will stress spot market truckload rates, intermodal capacity, and warehousing fulfillment centers entering Q4.
• Don’t forget about the availability of qualified drivers.

Logistics and supply chain managers are working those problems by re-examining network optimization, load consolidation, and route efficiency. Using AI overlays for real-time inventory visibility and dynamic lead-time monitoring, shippers marshal the ability to offset the longest supplier delays in more than four years.

Fine tuning your inbound logistics practices will go a long way to help you turn good economic news into even better news for you.